11/23/2023 0 Comments San andreas mega quake times magazineIt’s the typical term a homeowner is paying off the mortgage on a house.ĭoes the forecast help scientists predict the exact date and time the next Big One will hit? Why do scientists use 30 years to forecast the chance of the next big earthquake? This section of the fault has a 19% chance of having a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake in the next 30 years centered in California’s Mojave Desert. The southern San Andreas is “most likely to host a large earthquake,” the forecast said. Damage was reported in Whittier, Pico Rivera, Los Angeles and Alhambra. That aftershock killed one person, twisted several chimneys and broke windows. Three days later, a magnitude 5.6 aftershock hit on a different fault. During the Whittier Narrows earthquake, a magnitude 5.9 struck on the Puente Hills thrust fault system Oct. Many are in the Los Angeles area, in highly urban areas. An older forecast calculated the rate of magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquakes at about once every 600 years. How often do quakes rupture along multiple faults in a simultaneous mega-quake?Ī magnitude 8.0 or greater quake in California is now expected once about every 500 years. The magnitude 9.0 earthquake that hit off the Japanese coast in 2011 also jumped fault boundaries, “resulting in a much larger fault-rupture area and magnitude than expected, and contributing to the deadly tsunami and Fukushima nuclear disaster,” the USGS report said. The original quake and aftershocks triggered movement on at least six faults, including the Elsinore and San Jacinto faults, which run close to heavily populated areas in eastern Los Angeles County and the Inland Empire. Scientists said the Baja California quake directed tectonic stress northward, putting Southern California at a higher risk for a future quake. More recently, the magnitude 7.2 earthquake in 2010 that was centered near the California-Mexico border on Easter Sunday jumped faults. Two hit the sparsely-populated Mojave Desert: the magnitude 7.3 Landers earthquake in 1992 and the magnitude 7.2 Hector Mine earthquake in 1999. All three of the largest, most recent earthquakes in California have pushed beyond fault boundaries, “jumping from one fault to another,” Field said.
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